Non-Performing Loans and the Supply of Bank Credit: Evidence from Italy
41 Pages Posted: 19 Apr 2017
Date Written: March 8, 2017
We use an extensive loan-level dataset to study the influence of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the supply of bank credit to non-financial firms in Italy between 2008 and 2015. We use time-varying firm fixed effects to control for shifts in demand and changes in borrower characteristics, and we also resort to the supervisory interventions associated to the 2014 Asset Quality Review to identify exogenous variations in the banks’ NPL ratios. We find that banks’ lending behavior is not causally affected by the level of NPL ratios: the negative correlation between NPL ratios and credit growth in our data is mostly generated by changes in firms’ conditions and a contraction in their demand for credit. However, the exogenous emergence of NPLs and the associated increase in provisions can cause a negative adjustment in credit supply.
Keywords: credit register, credit risk, credit supply, non-performing loans
JEL Classification: E51, E58, G00, G21
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