ECB-Global: Introducing ECB's Global Macroeconomic Model for Spillover Analysis
71 Pages Posted: 21 Apr 2017
Date Written: April 18, 2017
In a highly interlinked global economy a key question for policy makers is how foreign shocks and policies transmit to the domestic economy. We develop a semi-structural multi-country model with rich real and financial channels of international shock propagation for the euro area, the US, Japan, the UK, China, oil-exporting economies and the rest of the world: ECB-Global. We illustrate the usefulness of ECB-Global for policy analysis by presenting its predictions regarding the global spillovers from a US monetary policy tightening, a drop in oil prices and a growth slowdown in China. The impulse responses implied by ECB-Global are well in line with those generated by other global models, with international spillovers in ECB-Global generally on the high side given its rich real and financial spillover structure.
Keywords: Macro-Modelling, Multi-Country Models, Spillovers, Monetary Policy
JEL Classification: C51, E30, E50
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