Oil and Solar Cycles: Statistics of Strong Ties (1970–2016 Years)

Chelyabinsk Humanitarian, No. 1 (38)/2017, pages 17-27

11 Pages Posted: 26 Apr 2017

See all articles by Vladimir Belkin

Vladimir Belkin

Chelyabinsk branch of the Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Date Written: April 25, 2017

Abstract

Grouping Wolf numbers and the price of oil «Brent» by year Schwabe solar cycle average for the period 1970–2016 years has allowed the author to establish strong ties Kitchin and Juglar cycles of oil prices and the cycles of the Wolf numbers.

The result was the ability to predict the price of oil on the basis of forecast values of Wolf numbers, as well as on the basis of indices of average oil prices average values over the years Schwabe cycle of solar activity.

On the basis of these methods, the author has developed the oil price forecast for «Brent» in 2017 in the range of 41.29 to 49 dollars. per barrel. Previous 2015 authors forecast a further decline in oil prices in 2016 has been successful.

Keywords: oil prices, the oil price cycles, forecasting of oil prices, the Wolf numbers, solar activity cycles, cycles of Kitchin, Juglar cycles, Schwabe cycles, the consumer price index.

Suggested Citation

Belkin, Vladimir, Oil and Solar Cycles: Statistics of Strong Ties (1970–2016 Years) (April 25, 2017). Chelyabinsk Humanitarian, No. 1 (38)/2017, pages 17-27. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2958129

Vladimir Belkin (Contact Author)

Chelyabinsk branch of the Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences ( email )

The Russian Federation, 454080, Chelyabinsk, Lenin
Chelyabinsk
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.uiec.ru/ob_institute/struktura/filialy/chelyabinskii_filial/

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
30
Abstract Views
258
PlumX Metrics