Launching Export Accelerations in Latin America and the World

69 Pages Posted: 25 Apr 2017

See all articles by Valerie Cerra

Valerie Cerra

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael

Fondation Pour les Etudes et Recherches Sur le Développement International (FERDI)

Date Written: March 2017

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of sustained accelerations in goods and services exports. Strong predictors of export takeoffs include domestic and structural indicators such as lower macroeconomic uncertainty, improved quality of institutions, a depreciated exchange rate, and agricultural reforms. Lower tariffs, participation in global value chains and diversification also contribute to initiating export accelerations. The paper also finds heterogeneity, with somewhat different triggers for Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as for goods and services. Finally, despite the lack of a robust effect on output, export surges tend to be associated with lower post-acceleration unemployment and income inequality.

Keywords: Trade, Unemployment, export accelerations, growth, inequality, probit, synthetic control method, Latin America and the Caribbean; globalization, Latin America and the Caribbean, globalization, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Economic Growth of Open Economies, General

JEL Classification: F13, F14, F43, I30, O10, O54

Suggested Citation

Cerra, Valerie and Tesfaye Woldemichael, Martha, Launching Export Accelerations in Latin America and the World (March 2017). IMF Working Paper No. 17/43, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2958196

Valerie Cerra (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States
202-623-8596 (Phone)

Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael

Fondation Pour les Etudes et Recherches Sur le Développement International (FERDI) ( email )

63, boulevard François-Mitterrand
Clermont-Ferrand, 63000
France

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