Aftershocks of Monetary Unification: Hysteresis with a Financial Twist
27 Pages Posted: 25 Apr 2017
Date Written: March 2017
Once upon a time, in the 1990s, it was widely agreed that neither Europe nor the United States was an optimum currency area, although moderating this concern was the finding that it was possible to distinguish a regional core and periphery (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1993). Revisiting these issues, we find that the United States is remains closer to an optimum currency area than the Euro Area. More intriguingly, the Euro Area shows striking changes in correlations and responses which we interpret as reflecting hysteresis with a financial twist, in which the financial system causes aggregate supply and demand shocks to reinforce each other. An implication is that the Euro Area needs vigorous, coordinated regulation of its banking and financial systems by a single supervisor-that monetary union without banking union will not work.
Keywords: Monetary unions, Euro Area, United States, Developed countries, Regional shocks, Supply and demand, Econometric models, Optimum currency area, hysterisis, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
JEL Classification: E44, F36, E32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation