All You Have to Do Is Ask: Measuring Uncertainty in Vote Intention

9 Pages Posted: 26 Apr 2017

Date Written: April 25, 2017

Abstract

A growing body of electoral forecasting research has tried to predict how voter's stated intentions before an election will change by the time the election is held. Much of this research has focused on aggregate shifts in opinion (Fisher 2015; Bafumi et al. 2010). This note argues that a simple measure of a voter's own certainty about their vote intention provides useful additional information about a voter's likelihood of switching away from their current intention. Such a measure allows us to see which parties' voters are most likely to defect and which blocks of votes are most solid.

Keywords: Vote Volatility, Vote Switching, Uncertainty, Forecasting, British Election Study

Suggested Citation

Mellon, Jonathan, All You Have to Do Is Ask: Measuring Uncertainty in Vote Intention (April 25, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2958302 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2958302

Jonathan Mellon (Contact Author)

University of Manchester ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom

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