고령화시대 주요국 금융시장 구조변화 분석과 정책적 시사점 (The Impact of Population Ageing on Financial Market Structures and Policy Implications)
178 Pages Posted: 27 Apr 2017
Date Written: December 30, 2016
Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 고령화가 야기하게될 금융시장관련 변화를 실증연구와 해외사례를 바탕으로 분석하였다. 연구결과는 고령화가 금융정책의 유효성을 약화시키고 저성장, 저물가, 저투자를 야기하게될 것임을 확인하고 있다. 사례연구에서는 고령화 대책은 경기적 대응보다 노동시장적 대응이 더 효과적이며 노령층에 주안한 연금상품의 개발과 도입을 지원하는 정책적 노력이 필요한 것으로 나타났다. 특히 한국의 낮은 연금수령비중과 사회조장체제 수준을 고려할 때 조속하고 포괄적인 정책대응이 요구된다.
English Abstract: Korea is aging at a rapid pace, causing concern about the resulting socio-economic impacts. This study analyzes the expected changes in the financial markets resulting from aging and seeks possible policy measures to mitigate the negative impacts of aging stemming from these changes.
Chapter 2 reviews the current status of Korea's aging process. Even though the country remains yet at the stage of an aging society, it is expected to become an aged society in 2017 and then a super-aged society in 2026, a mere nine years later. The aging of the Korean population is proceeding at an unprecedented pace. The fundamental reason for this fast pace of aging is the rapid drop in birth rate and growing life expectancy. However, Korea's socio-economic systems are not well prepared to absorb the shocks for aged people. More and more aged people are facing poverty and the rate of suicide is highest among the elderly. Rent beneficiaries occupy just a part of the old population. The social security system does not guarantee a stable livelihood for old people. This problem will become more serious in the near future because the baby boom generation has started to retire recently. The aging problem will lead to low growth, low inflation and low investment throughout the whole Korean economy, making structural changes inevitable in the financial market.
Chapter 3 undertakes empirical analysis to examine whether monetary policies can maintain their effectiveness even after aging has proceeded further. We performed a panel-VAR analysis using the OECD data for 25 member countries for 20 years, from 1995 to 2014. The empirical analysis showed that monetary policies lose their effectiveness considerably in an aged society. This result implies a possible change in the effectiveness of Korea’s monetary policies, especially if the aging of Korea’s population proceeds further. As of yet aging has not progressed significantly in Korea. However, the Bank of Korea should restructure its monetary policies in the long term, considering the change of policy effectiveness according to the progress of aging. The government may utilize fiscal policies to a more intensive extent to respond to cyclical depression while it sets monetary policies to manage the financial market and inflation pressure. For instance, if the government employs monetary policies to control cyclical changes, they would have to apply greater and faster interest rate changes than before to achieve the same effect. Research on the relation between aging and monetary policy has only begun to be discussed recently. However, it may become one of the main research topics in the near future due to its importance. Further and more detailed studies will be needed to allow adjustment of monetary policies in an aged society.
Chapter 4 reviews the theories regarding the relation between aging and the financial market and undertakes case studies with Japan, Germany and the U.S. In addition to a theoretical review, the countries' money flow charts and international investment position tables were analyzed to discover the impacts of aging on the financial market. Japan has shown macroeconomic and financial changes very close to theoretical predictions. However, Germany is not showing considerable changes in its financial market due to active labor market reforms. The U.S. as well does not reveal the characteristics of an aged society because aging in the U.S. is still at an initial stage and the financial market functions as a global market rather than a domestic market. Even though the countries show different levels of change, they all have introduced some policy measures focused on aging. Examples of successful policies include the Japanese current account policies and NISA, German labor market reform and competition policies, and the U.S.' introduction of annuities such as its 401(k) plan.
Chapter 5 draws policy implications based on the analyses above. The recommended policy directions are as follows: explore new roles for monetary policies, use labor market approaches and financial market approaches to respond to aging, and employ strategies using the income account to maintain current account balance, etc.
Finally, this study emphasizes the need for fast and comprehensive countermeasures against the negative macroeconomic and financial impacts of ageing.
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