통일 후 남북한경제 한시분리운영방안: 통화·금융·재정 분야 (Temporary Separate Operation of South and North Korean Economies after Unification: Monetary, Financial and Fiscal Aspect)

219 Pages Posted: 28 Apr 2017

See all articles by Young Chan Kim

Young Chan Kim

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Bumhwan Kim

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Seokki Hong

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Hyeonseok Park

Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)

Date Written: December 30, 2016

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 남북한간의 통일·통합에 관한 논의는 급진적 통합과 점진적 통합 두 축을 중심으로 진행되어왔다. 이에 더하여 최근에는 정치적 통합이 이루어지더라도 경제적 통합은 시간을 두고 추진하는 것을 내용으로 하는 연구도 활성화되고 있다. 특구식, 절충형 통합 혹은 한시적 분리운영이라고 불리는 이 연구는 우리의 의지와 관계없이 정치적 통합이 이루어질 때 급진적 경제통합이 야기할 문제들, 즉 북한의 생산·고용 불안, 남한의 지원 부담, 외환·자본시장에 대한 압력, 재정시스템 작동의 어려움 등을 인식하면서도 급속한 통합을 수용해야 하는가 하는 문제의식에서 출발한다.

정치적 통합이 되더라도 북한지역을 한시적으로 분리할 수 있다면 사회보장과 노동시장에서의 긴장을 크게 줄이는 한편 북한특구의 빠른 성장을 뒷받침하는 방향으로 독자적인 통화정책, 환율·외환제도, 금융시스템 및 재정정책을 운용할 수 있을 것이다. 남한의 지원도 사회보장이 아닌 경제발전 목적에 집중적으로 투입하여보다 효율적으로 사용될 수 있을 것이다.

본 보고서에서는 통화·금융·재정 분야에서 통합과 한시적 분리의 의미, 한시적 분리의 필요성을 살펴보고 각 부문별로 한시분리 운영방안을 제시한 후 각 부문의 상호연관성과 한시적 분리에서 통합으로 이어지는 과정을 제시하고자 하였다. 다만 한시적 분리의 경제적 우위성, 법적 타당성에 대한 검토는 이 연구시리즈의 별도 연구에서 다루므로 본 연구에는 포함되지 않았다. 분리기간은 명시적으로 설정하지 않았는데 북한특구의 독자적인 경제정책이 효과를 충분히 발휘할 수 있으며 분리가 고착되는 것으로 인식되지 않을 정도의 기간으로 상정할 수 있을 것이다. 그 범위 내에서 세부 분야별로 분리에서 통합으로 이어지는 기간이 달라질 수 있을 것이다.

English Abstract: When it comes to the unification and integration of North and South Korea, discussions have been mainly focused on either radical integration or gradual integration. Coming into recent years, another direction of research is being explored as well, suggesting that even if political integration is achieved, economic integration should proceed over time. This approach to the unification issue, which is referred to as special administrative region (SAR) type integration or temporary separate operation, is based on awareness of the problems that will result from radical economic integration should political unification be carried out irrespective of our will, such as production and employment unstability in North Korea, the burden on South Korea, pressure on the foreign exchange and capital market, and difficulties in operating the fiscal system.

Even should political integration take place, it will be possible to reduce pressure to the social security and tensions in the labor market if the North Korean region can temporarily remain in a state of separate operation. Such an approach would enable the North to implement its own monetary policy, exchange rate scheme, fiscal policy, foreign exchange system and financial system to support rapid growth within the North Korean region. In this case, South Korea's support could be utilized more efficiently by concentrating on the goals of economic development rather than social security.

This report examines the implications of integration and temporary separation, the necessity of temporary separation in the monetary, financial, and fiscal sectors and suggests temporary separate operation by each sector. We also illustrate the interconnected relationship between each sector and propose a process that leads to integration from a state of temporary separation. However, the economic advantage and legal validity of temporary separation are not included in the scope of this study, as they are discussed in a separate study within this series. While the separation period cannot be explicitly set in advance, it could be set as a period sufficient for economic policies of its own in the North Korean region to fully take effect but not so long that the state of segregation comes to be perceived as a permanent one. Overall, the period from separation to integration for each sector may vary.

Note: Downloadable document is in Korean.

Suggested Citation

Kim, Young Chan and Kim, Bumhwan and Hong, Seokki and Park, Hyeonseok, 통일 후 남북한경제 한시분리운영방안: 통화·금융·재정 분야 (Temporary Separate Operation of South and North Korean Economies after Unification: Monetary, Financial and Fiscal Aspect) (December 30, 2016). KIEP Research Paper. Long-term Trade Strategies Study Series 16-02 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2959817 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2959817

Young Chan Kim (Contact Author)

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Bumhwan Kim

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Seokki Hong

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Hyeonseok Park

Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) ( email )

373-1 Kusong-dong
Yuson-gu
Taejon 305-701, 130-722
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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