The Future of Korea's Trade and Business Portfolio in North Africa: A Deep Horizon Political Economy Scan of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia

199 Pages Posted: 2 May 2017

See all articles by Mark Abdollahian

Mark Abdollahian

Claremont Colleges - Claremont Graduate University

Jaehoon Lee

SGI Consulting Company

Zining Yang

Claremont Colleges - Claremont Graduate University

Khaled Eid

Claremont Colleges - Claremont Graduate University

Date Written: December 30, 2016

Abstract

Since 2000, Korea's trade volume with North Africa has increased to over $15 billion and a trade surplus of $7 billion. However recent political unrest across North Africa, especially in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia, could threaten to significantly impact Korea's trade, investment and diplomatic activities across the region. As economists have long established the relationship between political stability, economic growth and foreign direct investment, this study performs a deep horizon scan on domestic political stability in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. We use an agent based computational economics (ACE) model called SENTURION to anticipate likely political stability outcomes, scenarios and potential macroeconomic impact. We then offer specific policy and investment advice for Korean business, trade and investment activities in each country, focusing on risk, sectoral and investment strategies given likely political and macroeconomic performance and resiliency in each country.

Suggested Citation

Abdollahian, Mark and Lee, Jaehoon and Yang, Zining and Eid, Khaled, The Future of Korea's Trade and Business Portfolio in North Africa: A Deep Horizon Political Economy Scan of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia (December 30, 2016). KIEP Research Paper. Studies in Comprehensive Regional Strategies 16-11 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2961682 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2961682

Mark Abdollahian (Contact Author)

Claremont Colleges - Claremont Graduate University ( email )

150 E. Tenth Street
Claremont, CA 91711
United States

Jaehoon Lee

SGI Consulting Company ( email )

Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Zining Yang

Claremont Colleges - Claremont Graduate University ( email )

150 E. Tenth Street
Claremont, CA 91711
United States

Khaled Eid

Claremont Colleges - Claremont Graduate University ( email )

150 E. Tenth Street
Claremont, CA 91711
United States

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