Time-Varying Energy and Stock Market Integration in Asia
47 Pages Posted: 2 May 2017 Last revised: 24 Dec 2020
Date Written: September 28, 2017
The degree of integration between energy and stock markets is critical for the diversification and risk management decisions of global corporations and investors alike. We investigate the integration relation between ten major Asian stock markets and a diversified energy portfolio that comprises oil, coal and gas. Estimation of the relation in a time-varying asset pricing framework, which allows for regime switching, identifies two major regimes. The first regime represents periods of low energy-stock market integration, accounting for over two-thirds of the sample period during December 1992 to December 2015. The second regime represents periods of high integration, as characterized by limited diversification opportunities and increased levels of asset price volatility including increased exchange rate volatility. The two regimes also differ in the way equity markets price energy risk. Besides an energy-unrelated positive equity risk premium during the low integration regime, our results identify a significant positive energy-related equity risk premium during the high integration regime. Finally, we demonstrate that investors can use the conditional information of our integration model to outperform passive portfolio investment strategies in the stock and energy markets.
Keywords: Coal; Commodities; Energy Risk; Financial Market Integration; Gas, International Asset Pricing; Market Risk; Oil; Regime Switching Model
JEL Classification: F15, F2, F36, G10, G15
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