Robust Modelling of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of Forest Tree Species

de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J, Barredo, J.I., 2017. Robust modelling of the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of forest tree species. Publication Office of the European Union, 58 pp. ISBN:978-92-79-66704-6 , doi/10.2760/296501

58 Pages Posted: 5 May 2017

See all articles by Daniele de Rigo

Daniele de Rigo

European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Giovanni Caudullo

European Commission Joint Research Center - Bio-Economy Unit

Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz

European Commission Joint Research Center - Disaster Risk Management Unit

José I. Barredo

European Commission Joint Research Center - Bio-Economy Unit

Date Written: March 15, 2017

Abstract

In Europe, forests play a strategic multifunctional role, serving economic, social and environmental purposes. However, forests are among the most complex systems and their interaction with the ongoing climate change – and the multifaceted chain of potential cascading consequences for European biodiversity, environment, society and economy – is not yet well understood.

The JRC PESETA project series proposes a consistent multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe. Within the PESETA II project, a robust methodology is introduced for modelling the habitat suitability of forest tree species (2071-2100 time horizon). Abies alba (the silver fir) is selected as a case study: a main European tree species often distributed in bioclimatically complex areas, spanning over various forest types and with multiple populations adapted to different conditions.

The modular modelling architecture is based on relative distance similarity (RDS) estimates which link field observations with bioclimatic patterns, projecting their change under climate scenarios into the expected potential change of suitable habitat for tree species. Robust management of uncertainty is also examined. Both technical and interpretation core aspects are presented in an integrated overview. The semantics of the array of quantities under focus and the uneven sources of uncertainty at the continental scale are discussed (following the semantic array programming paradigm), with an effort to offer some minimal guidance on terminology, meaning and methodological limitations not only of the proposed approach, but also of the broad available literature – whose heterogeneity and partial ambiguity might potentially reverberate at the science-policy interface.

Note: © European Union, 2017 The reuse of the document is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the original meaning or message of the texts are not distorted. The European Commission shall not be held liable for any consequences stemming from the reuse.

Keywords: Abies alba, ANN, climate change, diversity, Europe, forest resources, free software, fuzzy, GDAL, GNU bash, GNU/Linux, GNU Octave, integrated modelling, Mastrave modelling library, Maximum Habitat Suitability, Relative Distance Similarity, robust modelling, Semantic Array Programming, uncertainty

JEL Classification: C02, C31, C45, C6, Q2, Q23, Q5, Q54, Q57

Suggested Citation

de Rigo, Daniele and Caudullo, Giovanni and San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús and Barredo, José I., Robust Modelling of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of Forest Tree Species (March 15, 2017). de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J, Barredo, J.I., 2017. Robust modelling of the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of forest tree species. Publication Office of the European Union, 58 pp. ISBN:978-92-79-66704-6 , doi/10.2760/296501 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2961863

Daniele De Rigo (Contact Author)

European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) ( email )

Via E. Fermi 2749
Ispra (VA), I-21027
Italy

Giovanni Caudullo

European Commission Joint Research Center - Bio-Economy Unit ( email )

Via E. Fermi 2749
Ispra (VA), I-21027
Italy

Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz

European Commission Joint Research Center - Disaster Risk Management Unit ( email )

Via E. Fermi 2749
Ispra (VA), I-21027
Italy

José I. Barredo

European Commission Joint Research Center - Bio-Economy Unit ( email )

Via E. Fermi 2749
Ispra (VA), I-21027
Italy

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