Prospects for the Completion of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: An Option that Will Suit All International Actors

Abstract

At the end of 2016 and early in 2017, Russia carried out a number of actions against Ukraine. The paper describes possible steps of Russia in the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It is shown that there is the possibility of dividing Ukraine into three parts: a) the Eastern part – under the control of the subordinate Russia of the former president of Ukraine V. Yanukovich; b) the Central one under the control of the existing power of P. Poroshenko; and c) the Western one (which will develop towards integration into Poland, Hungary and Romania). This development of events may well satisfy all international players in the event that Russia takes the initiative to convene the "Second Helsinki Declaration" (Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe). The authorities in Ukraine are losing the opportunity to prevent Russia’s actions, but possible actions are described in the article.

Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, conflict decision, attack on territory, international actors, scenarios for normalization

JEL Classification: D74, F52, N44, P26