The Global Rise of Asset Prices and the Decline of the Labor Share

62 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2017 Last revised: 11 Aug 2017

Date Written: July 30, 2017

Abstract

The labor income share has been decreasing across countries since the early 1980s, sparking a growing literature about the causes of this trend (Elsby et al., 2013; Karabarbounis and Neiman, 2014; Piketty and Zucman, 2014; among many others). At the same time, again since the early 1980s, there has been a global steady increase in equity Tobin’s Q. This paper uses a simple model to connect these two phenomena and evaluates its empirical validation. In our model a raise in equity Tobin’s Q increases equity returns and, importantly, reduces corporate investment. The impact on the capital-output ratio reduces the labor share for standard values of the elasticity of substitution. Based on a common factor model, we find that the increase in Tobin’s Q explains almost 60% of the total decline in the labor income share. We highlight three different factors that operate through the same theoretical channel, namely capital income taxes, monopoly mark-ups and corporate short-termism, and we find empirical evidence for all of them, not only for the rise of monopoly power (which has been the focus of recent literature). We also find that the impact of the relative prices of capital goods on the labor share is not significant. Finally, we use the model to suggest different policies that can revert this declining trend.

Keywords: Tobin's Q, Labor Share, Asset Prices, Capital-Output ratios

JEL Classification: E25, E44, E22

Suggested Citation

González, Ignacio and Trivín, Pedro, The Global Rise of Asset Prices and the Decline of the Labor Share (July 30, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2964329 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2964329

Ignacio González (Contact Author)

American University ( email )

4400 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC NY 20016
United States
6072621574 (Phone)
6072621574 (Fax)

Pedro Trivín

University of Girona ( email )

Girona, 17071
Spain

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