Malaria Risk and Civil Violence

81 Pages Posted: 8 May 2017  

Matteo Cervellati

University of Bologna - Department of Economics; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Instituto de Análisis Económic (IAE) Barcelona

Elena Esposito

European University Institute

Uwe Sunde

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich - Faculty of Economics

Simona Valmori

University of Bologna

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: April 04, 2017

Abstract

Using high-resolution data from Africa over the period 1998-2012, this paper investigates the hypothesis that a higher exposure to malaria increases the incidence of civil violence. The analysis uses panel data at the 1o grid cell level at monthly frequency. The econometric identification exploits exogenous monthly within-grid-cell variation in weather conditions that are particularly suitable for malaria transmission. The analysis compares the effect across cells with different malaria exposure, which affects the resistance and immunity of the population to malaria outbreaks. The results document a robust effect of the occurrence of suitable conditions for malaria on civil violence. The effect is highest in areas with low levels of immunities to malaria. Malaria shocks mostly affect unorganized violence in terms of riots, protests, and confrontations between militias and civilians, rather than geo-strategic violence, and the effect spikes during short, labor-intensive harvesting periods of staple crops that are particularly important for the subsistence of the population. The paper ends with an evaluation of anti-malaria interventions.

Keywords: malaria risk, civil violence, weather shocks, immunity, cell-level data, Africa

JEL Classification: D740, J100

Suggested Citation

Cervellati, Matteo and Esposito, Elena and Sunde, Uwe and Valmori, Simona, Malaria Risk and Civil Violence (April 04, 2017). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6413. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2964791

Matteo Cervellati

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ( email )

Strada Maggiore 45
Bologna, 40125
Italy
+39-2092605 (Phone)
+39-2092664 (Fax)

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.iza.org/

Instituto de Análisis Económic (IAE) Barcelona

Barcelona, Bellaterra 08193
Spain

Elena Esposito

European University Institute ( email )

Villa Schifanoia
133 via Bocaccio
Firenze (Florence), Tuscany 50014
Italy

Uwe Sunde (Contact Author)

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Ludwigstrasse 28
Munich, D-80539
Germany

Simona Valmori

University of Bologna ( email )

Piazza Scaravilli 2
Bologna, 40100
Italy

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