The Future of Long Term Care in Europe. An Investigation Using a Dynamic Microsimulation Model

65 Pages Posted: 8 May 2017

See all articles by Vincenzo Atella

Vincenzo Atella

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS); Department of Economics and Finance; University of Rome Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics

Federico Belotti

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance; University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Centre for Economics and International Studies (CEIS)

Ludovico Carrino

King's College London; Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia

Andrea Piano Mortari

CEIS Tor Vergata

Date Written: May 8, 2017

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the evolution of public European LTC systems in the forthcoming decades, using the Europe Future Elderly Model (EuFEM), a dynamic microsimulation model which projects the health and socio-economic characteristics of the 50 population of ten European countries, augmented with the explicit modelling of the eligibility rules of 5 countries. The use of SHARE data allows to have a better understanding of the trends in the demand for LTC differentiated by age groups, gender, and other demographic and social characteristics in order to better assess the distributional effects. We estimate the future potential coverage (or gap of coverage) of each national/regional public home-care system, and then disentangle the differences between countries in a population and a regulation effects. Our analysis offers new insights on how would the demand for LTC evolve over time, what would the distributional effects of different LTC policies be if no action is taken, and what could be potential impact of alternative care policies.

Keywords: Dynamic Microsimulation, Long Term Care, Forecast, disability, Regulation

JEL Classification: I11, I18, C53, C63, J14, J11

Suggested Citation

Atella, Vincenzo and Belotti, Federico and Carrino, Ludovico and Piano Mortari, Andrea, The Future of Long Term Care in Europe. An Investigation Using a Dynamic Microsimulation Model (May 8, 2017). CEIS Working Paper No. 405. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2964830 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2964830

Vincenzo Atella

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS) ( email )

Via Columbia, 2
Rome, I-00133
Italy
+39 06 72595648 (Phone)

Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Via Columbia 2
Roma, 00133
Italy

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Via Columbia n.2
I-00133 Rome, 00133
Italy
+39 06 72595635 (Phone)
+30 06 2020 500 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.economia.uniroma2.it/sefemeq/professori/atella/

Federico Belotti

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance

Via Columbia 2
Rome, RM 00133
Italy

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Centre for Economics and International Studies (CEIS) ( email )

Via Columbia, 2
Rome, RM 00133
Italy

Ludovico Carrino

King's College London ( email )

Room D11, East Wing
Strand Campus
London, WC2R 2LS
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/ludovico.carrino.html

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy

Andrea Piano Mortari (Contact Author)

CEIS Tor Vergata ( email )

via Columbia, 2
Rome, rome 00133
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.ceistorvergata.it/area.asp?a=539&oc=817&d=1128

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