Driving Delhi? Behavioural Responses to Driving Restrictions
30 Pages Posted: 17 May 2017
Date Written: July 11, 2016
This paper examines two related hypotheses: the ability of urban drivers to effectively bypass policies that restrict road traffic, and whether these behavioural responses render such policies ineffective. I study an unexpected, large scale driving restriction policy experiment in Delhi. In the short run, around half of the affected drivers are able to lawfully bypass it by switching to existing unrestricted private travel modes. However, consistent with high marginal rates of congestion, the policy also led to a precisely estimated decrease in average driving travel time excess delay. I provide suggestive evidence that both effects are broadly similar during a second, anticipated round of the policy. Methodologically, this paper makes two contributions: traffic congestion is quantified using rich data from Google Maps, and short-term driving substitution patterns are identified using panel daily driver data and the essentially random assignment of odd and even license plates.
Keywords: traffic, driving restrictions
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