Policy, Risk and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

123 Pages Posted: 12 May 2017

See all articles by Francis Vitek

Francis Vitek

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: April 2017

Abstract

This paper develops a structural macro econometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies, to facilitate multilaterally consistent macrofinancial policy, risk and spillover analysis. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover transmission channels. These macrofinancial linkages encompass bank and capital market based financial intermediation, with financial accelerator mechanisms linked to the values of the housing and physical capital stocks. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, macroprudential policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated. These include quantifying the monetary, fiscal and macroprudential transmission mechanisms, accounting for business cycle fluctuations, and generating relatively accurate forecasts of inflation and output growth.

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis; Fiscal policy analysis; Macroprudential policy analysis; Spillover analysis; Forecasting; World economy; Bayesian econometrics, Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Macroprudential policy analysis, Spillover analysis, Forecasting, World economy, Bayesian econometrics, Bayesian Analysis, Models with Panel Data, General, General, General, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

JEL Classification: C11, C33, C50, E30, E40, E52, E62, F40, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

Vitek, Francis, Policy, Risk and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach (April 2017). IMF Working Paper No. 17/89, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2967442

Francis Vitek (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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