Long Term Temperature Trends in Daily Station Data: Australia

39 Pages Posted: 15 May 2017 Last revised: 16 May 2017

Date Written: May 15, 2017

Abstract

A month by month trend analysis of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures from three weather stations in Australia is presented. The results show warming trends in TMIN for all twelve calendar months at all three stations with observed warming rates ranging from 0.4 to 2.3 degrees Celsius per century. The TMAX data show a combination of warming trends, cooling trends, and no trends with significant differences among stations and among the calendar months so that no coherent conclusion can be drawn with respect to the long term trend in TMAX. Temperature trends in a moving 30-year window indicate that long term linear OLS trends in temperature are the residual product of violent multi-decadal cycles of warming and cooling at rates that are an order of magnitude greater. Detrended correlation analysis failed to establish a relationship between emissions and warming. The strong evidence of warming found in the TMIN data is confounded by its absence in TMAX as no theoretical basis exists for fossil fuel emissions to cause warming in TMIN and not in TMAX.

Keywords: Global warming, climate change, station temperature data, trend analysis, trend profile, numerical methods, OLS assumptions, AGW, anthropogenic global warming, fossil fuel emissions, warming and emissions, Australia

Suggested Citation

Munshi, Jamal, Long Term Temperature Trends in Daily Station Data: Australia (May 15, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2968352 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2968352

Jamal Munshi (Contact Author)

Sonoma State University ( email )

1801 East Cotati Avenue
Rohnert Park, CA 94928
United States

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