Biases in the Football Betting Market

6 Pages Posted: 31 May 2017 Last revised: 10 Mar 2018

See all articles by Imant Daunhawer

Imant Daunhawer

University of Konstanz

David Schoch

University of Konstanz

Sven Kosub

University of Konstanz

Date Written: May 30, 2017

Abstract

This research uses football online betting odds of a broad variety of matches and bookmakers to identify known biases in odds pricing, namely the favorite-longshot bias and the away-favorite bias. Furthermore, it tries to answer the question whether a naive strategy of betting against these biases can be profitable. Our findings are consistent with previous research, confirming the existence of the favorite-longshot bias, but turn out to be in contrast with regard to the away-favorite bias, for which there is little evidence in the data. Also, we find that a strategy of betting against the favorite-longshot bias can be marginally profitable, whereas bets in favor of it result in large losses on average.

Keywords: betting market, sports forecasting, bias analysis, favorite-longshot bias, betting strategy

JEL Classification: Z2, G11, G14

Suggested Citation

Daunhawer, Imant and Schoch, David and Kosub, Sven, Biases in the Football Betting Market (May 30, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2977118 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2977118

Imant Daunhawer (Contact Author)

University of Konstanz ( email )

Fach D-144
Universitätsstraße 10
Konstanz, D-78457
Germany

David Schoch

University of Konstanz ( email )

Fach D-144
Universitätsstraße 10
Konstanz, D-78457
Germany

Sven Kosub

University of Konstanz ( email )

Fach D-144
Universitätsstraße 10
Konstanz, D-78457
Germany

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