Climate and Crop Yields in Australia, Brazil, China, Europe and the United States

8 Pages Posted: 1 Jun 2017

See all articles by Solomon Hsiang

Solomon Hsiang

University of California, Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research

David Lobell

Stanford University

Michael Roberts

University of Hawaii - Department of Economics

Wolfram Schlenker

Columbia University - School of International & Public Affairs (SIPA)

Date Written: January 1, 2013

Abstract

We examine whether nonlinear relationships between climatic conditions and crop yields are globally generalizable at subnational levels. We match subnational longitudinal administrative data on crop yields for barley, maize, oats, rice, soybeans, and wheat with growing season temperature and rainfall measures across Australia (n=406), Brazil (n=94,299), China (n=38,480), the European Union (n=15,505), and the United States (n=177,069). Using a flexible nonparametric approach that accounts for unobserved differences between locations, we estimate nineteen separate nonlinear climate-yield response surfaces. We verify that high temperatures and low rainfall substantially and significantly reduce crop yields across essentially all contexts and crops, with the exception of rice which tends to display more muted effects. Our results demonstrate a large and generalizable sensitivity of crop yields to climatic conditions across major crops in many of the world’s most productive agricultural regions.

Keywords: Climate, Agriculture, Econometrics

Suggested Citation

Hsiang, Solomon and Lobell, David and Roberts, Michael and Schlenker, Wolfram, Climate and Crop Yields in Australia, Brazil, China, Europe and the United States (January 1, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2977571 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2977571

Solomon Hsiang (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

2607 Hearst Avenue
Berkeley, CA 94720-7320
United States

HOME PAGE: http://gspp.berkeley.edu/directories/faculty/solomon-hsiang

National Bureau of Economic Research ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

David Lobell

Stanford University ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Michael Roberts

University of Hawaii - Department of Economics ( email )

Honolulu, HI 96822
United States

Wolfram Schlenker

Columbia University - School of International & Public Affairs (SIPA) ( email )

420 West 118th Street
New York, NY 10027
United States
2128541806 (Phone)

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