Brands or Uncertainty? An Empirical Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in Russian Football

24 Pages Posted: 2 Jun 2017

See all articles by Petr Parshakov

Petr Parshakov

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Ksenia Baidina

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Date Written: June 1, 2017

Abstract

This study estimates an attendance demand model in a reduced form, with uncertainty as one of the determinants of demand, to test the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH), using data from the Russian Football Premier League (RFPL). These data fit our requirements for two reasons. First, there are few sellout matches, so demand for tickets in the RFPL is not restricted by stadium capacity. Secondly, there have hitherto been no articles devoted to the study of outcome uncertainty in the RFPL. The results indicate that the UOH does not explain the behavioural pattern of attendees in the RFPL. The dependence between the attendance and uncertainty is found to be U-shaped or even declining. We explain the U-shaped dependence by the visiting team effect; an attendee’s utility in the RFPL depends more on seeing a top team coming to the city than on the uncertainty of the outcome of the match.

Keywords: Football, Attendance, the UOH, Uncertainty, Russian Football Premier League

JEL Classification: Z2, D81

Suggested Citation

Parshakov, Petr and Baidina, Ksenia, Brands or Uncertainty? An Empirical Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in Russian Football (June 1, 2017). Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP 163/EC/2017, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2978587 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2978587

Petr Parshakov (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Ksenia Baidina

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

136, Rodionova street
25/12, Bolshaya pecherskaya street
Nizhniy Novgorod, 603155
Russia

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