Monetarism with Chinese Characteristics

19 Pages Posted: 3 Jun 2017

Date Written: February 14, 2017

Abstract

Monetarism is often misunderstood, overlooked, forgotten, or even derided. Yet its basic logic, resting on the quantity theory of money, is evident and remains important in a world of pure fiat monies. Most major central banks have abandoned monetary targeting in favor of setting interest rates to achieve long-run price stability and full employment. China is an exception. Since 1998, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) has used money growth targets to help guide monetary policy aimed at preventing socially disruptive inflation and maintaining growth of nominal income. However, the PBC is subject to oversight by the State Council; the financial system is dominated by state-owned banks; capital markets are highly regulated; and interest rates and exchange rates are distorted. Thus, China’s monetarism is best described as “monetarism with Chinese characteristics.”

This article gives an overview of the basic tenets of monetarism, contrasts monetary policy making at the Federal Reserve with that employed by the PBC, examines financial repression in China, and offers some lessons learned from the operation of the monetary transmission mechanism under China’s system of monetary targeting and financial repression. While the M1 money multiplier is robust in China, it has collapsed in the United States since the use of unconventional monetary policy. Both China and the United States would benefit from the adoption of an explicit monetary rule, the depoliticization of credit allocation, and market-determined interest rates.

Keywords: Monetary Policy, China, People's Bank of China

JEL Classification: E00, E4, E52, E58

Suggested Citation

Institute, Cato and Dorn, James A., Monetarism with Chinese Characteristics (February 14, 2017). CATO Working Paper No. 42, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2979411 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2979411

Cato Institute (Contact Author)

Cato Institute ( email )

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James A. Dorn

Cato Institute ( email )

1000 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001-5403
United States

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