QE in the Fiscal Theory: A Risk-Based View
52 Pages Posted: 7 Jun 2017
Date Written: June 5, 2017
This paper explores the interactions between yield curve dynamics and nominal government debt maturity operations under fiscal stress in a New Keynesian model with endogenous bond risk premia. Open market debt maturity operations are non-neutral when the slope of the nominal yield curve is nonzero in a fiscally-led policy regime. When the risk profiles of government liabilities differ, rebalancing the maturity structure changes the government cost of capital. In the fiscal theory, changes in discount rates affect inflation through the intertemporal government budget equation. When the yield curve is upward-sloping (downward-sloping), the fiscal discount rate channel implies that shortening the maturity structure dampens (amplifies) the stimulative effects of quantitative easing policies.
Keywords: Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, Government Debt, Maturity Structure, Inflation, Bond Risk Premia, Markov-Switching DSGE, Nonlinear Solution Methods, Time-Varying Risk Premia
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