Small-Area Variation of Fertility Rates

COHERE Discussion Papers, University of Southern Denmark, 2017:4

15 Pages Posted: 7 Jun 2017

See all articles by Jorgen Lauridsen

Jorgen Lauridsen

Centre of Health Economics Research, Department of Business and Economics; University of Southern Denmark - Department of Business and Economics

Date Written: June 4, 2017

Abstract

Alike most of the Western world, the Danish fertility rate declined throughout the 20th century simultaneous to economic growth. This development, which conflicts with economic intuition, has been denoted the fertility paradox, and several studies have been devoted to resolve it. The present study analyzes the geographic variation across Danish municipalities in the fertility rate during the years 1982 to 2004. Several factors commonly believed to explain the variation in the fertility rate is found to be exerted to considerable regional variation. A model linking the fertility rate to several economic determinants is established and further modified to capture geographic small-area variation. Specifically, a positive correlation between regional levels of income and fertility is found, which contradicts the fertility paradox. Thus, the necessity of separating small-area and dynamic variation, aiming at obtain a proper interpretation of the link between fertility and its determinants, is demonstrated.

Keywords: Spatial econometrics, Demography, Fertility, Regional population variation

JEL Classification: C21, N3, J13, R23

Suggested Citation

Lauridsen, Jorgen and Lauridsen, Jorgen, Small-Area Variation of Fertility Rates (June 4, 2017). COHERE Discussion Papers, University of Southern Denmark, 2017:4, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2981593 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2981593

Jorgen Lauridsen (Contact Author)

University of Southern Denmark - Department of Business and Economics ( email )

DK-5230 Odense
Denmark

Centre of Health Economics Research, Department of Business and Economics ( email )

Faculty of Social Sciences
Campusvej 55
DK-5230 Odense M
Denmark

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