IMF Credit: How Important are Political Factors? A Robustness Analysis

25 Pages Posted: 31 Jan 2002

See all articles by Jan-Egbert Sturm

Jan-Egbert Sturm

KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Helge Berger

Free University Berlin - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Jakob de Haan

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business; De Nederlandsche Bank; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: January 2002

Abstract

We test whether, in addition to economic conditions, IMF credit is influenced by political factors. On the basis of a panel model for 128 countries over the period 1972-1998, we find that debt service scaled to exports, international reserve holdings scaled to imports and economic growth, as well as investment are robustly related to IMF credit supply. Arguably, these results are broadly consistent with the IMF's mission. The only political variables which appear to be related to changes in IMF credit are government stability, the quality of the bureaucracy, and a dummy variable indicating the extent of political opposition. Possible interpretations of these findings are discussed.

Keywords: IMF Credit, Political Economy

JEL Classification: F33

Suggested Citation

Sturm, Jan-Egbert and Berger, Helge and de Haan, Jakob, IMF Credit: How Important are Political Factors? A Robustness Analysis (January 2002). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 642. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=298174

Jan-Egbert Sturm

KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich ( email )

Zurich
Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://www.kof.ethz.ch

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.cesifo.de

Helge Berger

Free University Berlin - Department of Economics ( email )

Boltzmannstr. 20
Berlin 14195, 14195
Germany
+49 30 838-54037 (Phone)
+49 30 838-52782 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/berger/eng_index.htm

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany
+49 89 9224 1266 (Phone)
+49 89 9224 1409 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

Jakob de Haan (Contact Author)

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business ( email )

PO Box 800
Groningen, 9700 AV
Netherlands
+31 0 50 3633706 (Fax)

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

P.O. Box 98
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

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