Do the Golden State Warriors Have Hot Hands?

11 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2017 Last revised: 5 Nov 2017

Alon Daks

University of California, Berkeley

Nishant Desai

University of California, Berkeley

Lisa R. Goldberg

University of California, Berkeley; Aperio Group

Date Written: November 4, 2017

Abstract

Star Golden State Warriors Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Kevin Durant are great shooters but they are not streak shooters. Only rarely do they show signs of a hot hand. This conclusion is based on an empirical analysis of field goal and free throw data from the 82 regular season and 17 postseason games played by the Warriors in 2016-2017. Our analysis is inspired by the iconic 1985 hot-hand study by Thomas Gilovitch, Robert Vallone and Amos Tversky, but uses a permutation test to automatically account for Josh Miller and Adam Sanjurjo’s recent small sample correction. In this study we show how long standing problems can be reexamined using nonparametric statistics to avoid faulty hypothesis tests due to misspecified distributions.

Keywords: hot hand, streak shooting, conditional probability, small sample correction, permutation test, nonparametric test

JEL Classification: C12, C14, C15

Suggested Citation

Daks, Alon and Desai, Nishant and Goldberg, Lisa R., Do the Golden State Warriors Have Hot Hands? (November 4, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2984615 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2984615

Alon Daks

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

310 Barrows Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

Nishant Desai

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

310 Barrows Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

Lisa R. Goldberg (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

Department of Statistics
367 Evans Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720-3860
United States

Aperio Group ( email )

3 Harbor Drive
Suite 315
Sausalito, CA 94965
United States

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