Dynamics of Housing Debt in the Recent Boom and Great Recession

67 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2017

See all articles by Manuel Adelino

Manuel Adelino

Duke University; Duke Innovation & Entrepreneurship Initiative; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Antoinette Schoar

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Felipe Severino

Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business

Date Written: June 2017

Abstract

This paper documents a number of key facts about the evolution of mortgage debt, homeownership, debt burden and subsequent delinquency during the recent housing boom and Great Recession. We show that the mortgage expansion was shared across the entire income distribution, i.e. the flow and stock of debt rose across all income groups (except for the top 5%). The mortgage expansion was especially pronounced in areas with increased house prices, and the speed at which houses turned over (churn) in these areas went up significantly. However, the average loan-to-value ratios (LTV) at origination did not increase over the boom period. While homeownership rates increased for the middle and upper income households, there was no increase in homeownership for the lowest income groups. Finally, default rates post-crisis went up predominantly in areas with large house price drops, especially for high income and high- FICO borrowers. These results are consistent with a view that the run up in mortgage debt over the pre-crisis period was driven by rising home values and expectations of increasing prices.

Suggested Citation

Adelino, Manuel and Schoar, Antoinette and Severino, Felipe, Dynamics of Housing Debt in the Recent Boom and Great Recession (June 2017). NBER Working Paper No. w23502. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2984678

Duke Innovation & Entrepreneurship Initiative ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Antoinette Schoar

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

50 Memorial Drive, E52-447
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-3763 (Phone)
617-258-6855 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Felipe Severino

Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business ( email )

Hanover, NH 03755
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~fseverino

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