The Art of the Trade Deal: Quantifying the Benefits of A TPP Without the United States

Canada West Foundation Trade and Investment Centre, June 2017

40 Pages Posted: 14 Jun 2017  

Carlo Dade

The Inter-American Foundation

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; C.D. Howe Institute; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH; Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada

Ali Dadkhah

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; Infinity Law

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc.; Ciuriak Consulting Inc.

Date Written: June 13, 2017

Abstract

The Trump administration’s swift exit from the TPP has clearly not killed the deal as the remaining signatories consider whether to move ahead without the United States. While the overall impact of the deal would be lower without the U.S., the 11 remaining countries are better off with a TPP11 than without any agreement at all -- and some economies, including Canada, Mexico and other TPP parties in the Americas, would be better off compared to the 12-member TPP. The U.S. meanwhile would find itself a loser. This study provides quantitative evidence of trade and other economic impacts, and considers the political arguments and practical considerations about the ability to craft a sensible path forward for the remaining countries to proceed with a TPP11 in the fluid international trade context they face.

Keywords: Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, United States, Canada

JEL Classification: F13, F15

Suggested Citation

Dade, Carlo and Ciuriak, Dan and Dadkhah, Ali and Xiao, Jingliang, The Art of the Trade Deal: Quantifying the Benefits of A TPP Without the United States (June 13, 2017). Canada West Foundation Trade and Investment Centre, June 2017. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2985355

Carlo Dade

The Inter-American Foundation ( email )

703.306.4341 (Phone)
703.306.4365 (Fax)

Dan Ciuriak (Contact Author)

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

C.D. Howe Institute ( email )

67 Yonge St., Suite 300
Toronto, Ontario M5E 1J8
Canada

Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) ( email )

57 Erb Street West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 6C2
Canada

BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH ( email )

Romanstrasse 74
München, 80639
Germany

Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada ( email )

Canada

HOME PAGE: http://ciuriakconsulting.com/

Ali Dadkhah

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

Infinity Law ( email )

200-931 Fort St.
Victoria, V8V 3K3
Canada

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc. ( email )

16167,Glenbrooks Pl
Vancouver, BC - British Columbia v4n1t3
Canada
6047245981 (Phone)
6047245981 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.infsum.com/en/

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

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