Spatial Autocorrelation Panel Regression: Agricultural Production and Transport Connectivity

24 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2017 Last revised: 30 Apr 2018

See all articles by Atsushi Iimi

Atsushi Iimi

International Monetary Fund (IMF); World Bank

Liangzhi You

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Ulrike Wood-Sichra

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Date Written: June 6, 2017

Abstract

Spatial analysis in economics is becoming increasingly important as more spatial data and innovative data mining technologies are developed. Even in Africa, where data often crucially lack quality analysis, a variety of spatial data have recently been developed, such as highly disaggregated crop production maps. Taking advantage of the historical event that rail operations were ceased in Ethiopia, this paper examines the relationship between agricultural production and transport connectivity, especially port accessibility, which is mainly characterized by rail transport. To deal with endogeneity of infrastructure placement and autocorrelation in spatial data, the spatial autocorrelation panel regression model is applied. It is found that agricultural production decreases with transport costs to the port: the elasticity is estimated at -0.094 to -0.143, depending on model specification. The estimated autocorrelation parameters also support the finding that although farmers in close locations share a certain common production pattern, external shocks, such as drought and flood, have spillover effects over neighboring areas.

Keywords: Transport Services, Climate Change and Agriculture, Crops and Crop Management Systems, Food Security, Railways Transport

Suggested Citation

Iimi, Atsushi and You, Liangzhi and Wood-Sichra, Ulrike, Spatial Autocorrelation Panel Regression: Agricultural Production and Transport Connectivity (June 6, 2017). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8089. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2985515

Atsushi Iimi (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Liangzhi You

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Ulrike Wood-Sichra

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

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