Do Players Correctly Estimate What Others Do?

Posted: 4 Mar 2002

See all articles by Steffen Huck

Steffen Huck

University College London - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Georg Weizsacker

Humboldt University Berlin; DIW Berlin

Abstract

In a simple experimental environment a group of subjects was asked to give estimates of a second group's choice frequencies in a set of lottery-choice tasks. The results show that subjects in the first group are on average able to correctly predict the option that is chosen with higher frequency by the second group, but the predictions are systematically inaccurate in that they are distorted toward the uniform prior. Two mechanisms to elicit the expectations were used in the experiment, a quadratic scoring rule and a bidding mechanism. Aggregate results being msimilar under both mechanisms, the use of the former mechanism consistently yields more accurate predictions.

Keywords: Beliefs; Elicitation; Prediction accuracy; Experiments

JEL Classification: C23; C91

Suggested Citation

Huck, Steffen and Weizsacker, Georg, Do Players Correctly Estimate What Others Do?. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 47, No. 1, January 2002. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=298839

Steffen Huck (Contact Author)

University College London - Department of Economics ( email )

Gower Street
London WC1E 6BT, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom
+44 207 679 5895 (Phone)
+44 207 916 2774 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ucl.ac.uk/~uctpshu/

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Georg Weizsacker

Humboldt University Berlin ( email )

Spandauer Str. 1
Berlin, D-10099
Germany

DIW Berlin

Mohrenstr. 58
Berlin
Germany

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
562
PlumX Metrics
!

Under construction: SSRN citations will be offline until July when we will launch a brand new and improved citations service, check here for more details.

For more information