Hurst Persistence in UAH Zonal Mean Lower Troposphere Temperatures

15 Pages Posted: 22 Jun 2017

Date Written: June 21, 2017


Zonal monthly means of UAH satellite based measurements of lower troposphere temperature anomalies 12/1978 to 4/2017 are examined for violations of the independence assumption of OLS linear regression. The Hurst Exponent (H), computed at a monthly time scale, is used as the measure of dependence. It is found that the independence assumption of OLS linear regression is violated in the UAH temperature anomaly time series. The apparent multi-decadal non-linearity found in a prior work may be related to non-linear dynamics implied by the Hurst phenomenon. The interpretation of OLS linear regression trend lines for these time series in terms of anthropogenic global warming should be made with caution, particularly so in view of the short time span of the data, because the data do not comply with OLS assumptions.

Keywords: Global Warming, Climate Change, Surface Temperature, Lower Troposphere Temperature, Satellite Temperature Measurements, UAH Satellite Temperature Dataset, Temperature Trends, Uncertainty in Temperature Trends, Linear OLS Regression, Assumptions of Linear OLS Regression, Violation of OLS Assumptions

Suggested Citation

Munshi, Jamal, Hurst Persistence in UAH Zonal Mean Lower Troposphere Temperatures (June 21, 2017). Available at SSRN: or

Jamal Munshi (Contact Author)

Sonoma State University ( email )

1801 East Cotati Avenue
Rohnert Park, CA 94928
United States

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