Domestic Flying Geese: Industrial Transfer and Delayed Policy Diffusion in China
The China Quarterly, 2018
24 Pages Posted: 28 Jun 2017 Last revised: 30 Jun 2018
Date Written: June 25, 2017
English Abstract: This study illuminates the important yet under-studied phenomenon of industrial transfer in China: the migration of capital and investment from wealthy coastal areas into poorer central and western provinces, beginning in the 2000s. By 2015, the value of domestic investment in five central provinces alone was 2.5 times that of foreign investment throughout China. Compared to the original “flying geese” model of tiered production in Asia, China’s experience is distinct in three ways: (1) industrial transfer occurred domestically, rather than across nations; (2) sub-national transfer followed cross-national transfer; and (3) industrial migration is accompanied by a delayed replication of government policies. While coastal locales today resolve to expel low-end industries, inland governments cannot afford to be selective and have recently adopted aggressive investment promotion tactics that coastal cities abandoned years ago. Policy diffusion is delayed as policy adoption depends on economic conditions, which varies widely across China and changes over time.
Chinese Abstract: 本文旨在分析中国产业转移这一重要却未被深入研究的现象。该现象出现于21世纪初期，指资本与制造产业从发达的沿海地区向贫穷的中西部省份转移。2015年，仅中部五个省份吸引的国内投资就已经是全中国外国投资的2.5倍。与经典的亚洲“飞鹅模式”相比，中国独特的经验体现在以下三个方面：(1) 产业转移发生于国内，而非跨国；(2) 国内转移紧随国际转移的步伐；(3) 资本转移伴随着地方政府政策复制上的滞后。当现今沿海发达地区努力驱逐低端产业时，内陆省份地方政府却无法选择，最近已采纳了沿海地区多年前就已弃用的激进招商策略。换而言之，由于政策的采纳取决于地方经济条件，而中国各地经济条件差异很大，随着时间的推移变化，导致政策扩散滞后。
Keywords: Industrial transfer; flying geese model; policy diffusion; industrial policy; domestic investment; regional development
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