Counting Ballots

The Journal of Performance Measurement, Winter 2000/2001, v5(2), 6-8

3 Pages Posted: 28 Jun 2017

Date Written: December 15, 2000

Abstract

Wall Streeters know that performance varies from one time interval to another, that there are a semi-infinite number of time intervals, and that there are always many such periods with plausibly good performance. Wall Streeters also know that various computations of performance give different results for a given time interval. This is why, in the past (the SEC hopes), virtually all investment managers were able to show good performance figures. Politicians have come to realize that, even without changing the choice of locale or the definition of a legal ballot, counting errors assure that a recount will change vote proportions. A vote proportion change is like a stock price change. Thus, the right to a recount confers a free call option on the underdog, at the winner's expense.

Keywords: options, bias, estimation

JEL Classification: G00, G02, G11

Suggested Citation

Ferguson, Robert, Counting Ballots (December 15, 2000). The Journal of Performance Measurement, Winter 2000/2001, v5(2), 6-8. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2992364

Robert Ferguson (Contact Author)

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