Income Disparities, Population and Migration Flows Over the 21st Century

29 Pages Posted: 27 Jun 2017

See all articles by Frédéric Docquier

Frédéric Docquier

Université catholique de Louvain; CREAM, Centre for Research on Environmental Appraisal & Management, UK; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Joel Machado

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER); Universite du Luxembourg - Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance

Date Written: January 2017

Abstract

This paper provides worldwide projections of population, educational attainment, international migration and income for the 21st century. We develop and parametrize a dynamic, stylized model of the world economy that accounts for the key interdependencies between demographic and economic variables. Our baseline scenario is in line with the ‘high-fertility’ population prospects of the United Nations, assumes constant education and migration policies, long-run absolute convergence in total factor productivity (TFP) between emerging and high-income countries, and the absence of economic takeoff in Africa. It predicts a rise in the income share of Asia (from 38 to 59 percent of the world income) and in the demographic share of Africa (from 10 to 25 percent of the world population). However, over the 21st century, the worldwide proportion of adult migrants will only increase by one percentage point (from 3.5 to 4.5 percent). Half of this change is explained by the increased attractiveness of China and India; and the remaining part is explained by the increased migration pressure from Africa to Western Europe. Keeping its immigration policy unchanged, the 15 members of the European Union will see their average immigration rate increase from 7.5 to 17.2 percent. On the contrary, immigration rates will remain stable in the other high-income countries. Then, we assess the sensitivity of our projections to changes in migration policies, TFP disparities, fertility and education. The evolution of productivity in emerging economies and in Africa will have a drastic impact on the worldwide population size, income disparities and the migration pressure to the European Union. The world economy will also be drastically affected if TFP convergence is accompanied by a fall in migration costs to China and India. However, a large increase in the average European immigration rate is obtained under all the scenarios. More than ever, the management of immigration will become a major societal challenge for Europe.

Keywords: Income prospects, Population prospects, Migration, World economy, Growth, Inequality

JEL Classification: O, O15

Suggested Citation

Docquier, Frédéric and Machado, Joel, Income Disparities, Population and Migration Flows Over the 21st Century (January 2017). Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano Development Studies Working Paper No. 421. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2992689 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2992689

Frédéric Docquier (Contact Author)

Université catholique de Louvain ( email )

IRES
Place Montesquieu 3
Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://https://perso.uclouvain.be/frederic.docquier/

CREAM, Centre for Research on Environmental Appraisal & Management, UK

University of Newcastle
NE1 7RU Newcastle Upon Tyne
United States

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Joel Machado

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) ( email )

11, Porte des Sciences
Campus Belval – Maison des Sciences Humaines
Esch-sur-Alzette, L-4366
Luxembourg

Universite du Luxembourg - Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance ( email )

162a, avenue de la Faïencerie
Luxembourg-Limpertsberg, L-1511
Luxembourg

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
29
Abstract Views
561
PlumX Metrics