World Steel Production: A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity

29 Pages Posted: 27 Jun 2017

See all articles by Francesco Ravazzolo

Francesco Ravazzolo

Free University of Bolzano

Joaquin Vespignani

University of Tasmania - School of Economics and Finance

Date Written: June 26, 2017

Abstract

In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index and Kilian’s rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that world steel production generates large statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP and oil prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of the three indices produces statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, oil, natural gas, gold and fertilizer prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark.

Keywords: Global real economic activity, World steel production, Forecasting

JEL Classification: E1, E3, C1, C5, C8

Suggested Citation

Ravazzolo, Francesco and Vespignani, Joaquin, World Steel Production: A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity (June 26, 2017). CAMA Working Paper No. 42/2017. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2992983 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2992983

Francesco Ravazzolo

Free University of Bolzano ( email )

Bolzano
Italy

Joaquin Vespignani (Contact Author)

University of Tasmania - School of Economics and Finance ( email )

Commerce Building,
Sandy Bay Campus
Sandy Bay, TAS, Tasmania 7005
Australia

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