World Steel Production: A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity
29 Pages Posted: 27 Jun 2017
Date Written: June 26, 2017
In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index and Kilian’s rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that world steel production generates large statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP and oil prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of the three indices produces statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, oil, natural gas, gold and fertilizer prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark.
Keywords: Global real economic activity, World steel production, Forecasting
JEL Classification: E1, E3, C1, C5, C8
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