Download this Paper Open PDF in Browser

A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing

26 Pages Posted: 28 Jun 2017  

Brian Hurst

AQR Capital Management, LLC

Yao Hua Ooi

AQR Capital Management, LLC

Lasse Heje Pedersen

AQR Capital Management, LLC; Copenhagen Business School - Department of Finance; New York University (NYU); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: June 27, 2017

Abstract

In this article, the authors study the performance of trend-following investing across global markets since 1880, extending the existing evidence by more than 100 years using a novel data set. They find that in each decade since 1880, time series momentum has delivered positive average returns with low correlations to traditional asset classes. Further, time-series momentum has performed well in 8 out of 10 of the largest crisis periods over the century, defined as the largest drawdowns for a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Lastly, time series momentum has performed well across different macro environments, including recessions and booms, war and peacetime, high- and low-interest rate regimes, and high- and low-inflation periods.

Keywords: trend-following, time series momentum, managed futures, CTA, hedge funds, alternative investments

JEL Classification: G02, G11, G12, G13, G14, G23

Suggested Citation

Hurst, Brian and Ooi, Yao Hua and Pedersen, Lasse Heje, A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing (June 27, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2993026

Brian Hurst

AQR Capital Management, LLC

Greenwich, CT
United States

Yao Hua Ooi

AQR Capital Management, LLC ( email )

Greenwich, CT
United States

Lasse Heje Pedersen (Contact Author)

AQR Capital Management, LLC ( email )

Greenwich, CT
United States

Copenhagen Business School - Department of Finance ( email )

Solbjerg Plads 3
Frederiksberg, DK-2000
Denmark

New York University (NYU) ( email )

Stern School of Business
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom

Paper statistics

Downloads
2,118
Rank
5,136
Abstract Views
6,241