Global Population Ageing, the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, and the Global Financial System

Journal of Globalization Studies, Vol. 7, Num. 2, pp. 11-31

21 Pages Posted: 11 Jul 2017

See all articles by Leonid Grinin

Leonid Grinin

National Research University Higher School of Economics; Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting; Volgograd Center for Social Research

Andrey Korotayev

Russian State University for the Humanities

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: November 30, 2016

Abstract

Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In the forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development. The present paper analyzes some aspects of the population ageing and its important consequences for particular societies and the whole world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future technological breakthrough is likely to take place in the 2030s (which we define as the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution). In the 2020s – 2030s we will expect the upswing of the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave, which will introduce the sixth technological paradigm (system). All those revolutionary technological changes will be connected, first of all, with breakthroughs in medicine and related technologies. We also present our ideas about the financial instruments that can help to solve the problem of pension provision for an increasing elderly population in the developed countries. We think that a more purposeful use of pension funds' assets together with an allocation (with necessary guarantees) of the latter into education and upgrading skills of young people in developing countries, perhaps, can partially solve the indicated problem in the developed states.

Keywords: the sixth Kondratieff wave, the sixth technological paradigm, Cybernetic Revolution, population ageing, world finance, pension funds, human capital, developed countries, developing countries

Suggested Citation

Grinin, Leonid and Korotayev, Andrey, Global Population Ageing, the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, and the Global Financial System (November 30, 2016). Journal of Globalization Studies, Vol. 7, Num. 2, pp. 11-31. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2997978

Leonid Grinin (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting ( email )

Rozhdestvenka 12
Moscow, 107031
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.sociostudies.org/ecbsf/

Volgograd Center for Social Research ( email )

Russia, 400079, Volgograd, Kirova street, 143
Volgograd, 400079
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.socionauki.ru/authors/grinin_l/

Andrey Korotayev

Russian State University for the Humanities

6
Miusskaya Square
Moscow, GSP-3, 125993
Russia

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