The Dutch Disease in Reverse: Iceland's Natural Experiment

30 Pages Posted: 11 Jul 2017

See all articles by Thorvaldur Gylfason

Thorvaldur Gylfason

University of Iceland - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Gylfi Zoega

University of Iceland; University of London - Birkbeck College; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: June 14, 2017

Abstract

For a long time, abundant natural resources brought Iceland a high and volatile real exchange rate with adverse effects on manufacturing and services. During 2003-2008, another national treasure, the sovereign’s AAA rating, was used by privatized banks to attract foreign capital, elevating the real exchange rate even further. The financial collapse and the associated collapse of the currency in 2008 left the country with a large foreign debt which offset some of the effect of the natural resources on the real exchange rate. In effect, this was the Dutch disease in reverse as witnessed, in particular, by a massive increase in the number of tourists following the financial collapse. This paper discusses the behavior of the exchange rate of the Icelandic króna before and after 2008 as well as its relationship to natural resources, capital flows, output, exports and imports, including tourism.

Keywords: Natural Resource Curse, Dutch Disease, Financial Crisis

JEL Classification: F410, O230, O330

Suggested Citation

Gylfason, Thorvaldur and Zoega, Gylfi, The Dutch Disease in Reverse: Iceland's Natural Experiment (June 14, 2017). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6513, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2999691

Thorvaldur Gylfason (Contact Author)

University of Iceland - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

IS-101 Reykjavik
Iceland
+354 525 4533/00 (Phone)
+354 552 6806 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.hi.is/~gylfason/inenglish.htm)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Gylfi Zoega

University of Iceland ( email )

IS-101 Reykjavik
Iceland

University of London - Birkbeck College ( email )

Malet Street
London, WC1E 7HX
United Kingdom

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
70
Abstract Views
449
rank
357,705
PlumX Metrics