Predicting School Dropout with Administrative Data: New Evidence from Guatemala and Honduras

42 Pages Posted: 24 Jul 2017

See all articles by Melissa A. Adelman

Melissa A. Adelman

World Bank

Francisco Haimovich

Universidad Nacional de La Plata - Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS)

Andres Ham

Independent

Emmanuel Jose Vazquez

Universidad Nacional de La Plata - Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS)

Date Written: July 10, 2017

Abstract

Across Latin America, school dropout is a growing concern, because of its negative social and economic consequences. Although a wide range of interventions hold potential to reduce dropout rates, policy makers in many countries must first address the basic question of how to target limited resources effectively for such interventions. Identifying who is most likely to drop out and, therefore, who should be prioritized for targeting, is a prediction problem that has been addressed in a rich set of research in countries with strong education system data. This paper makes use of newly established administrative data systems in Guatemala and Honduras, to estimate some of the first dropout prediction models for lower-middle-income countries. These models can correctly identify 80 percent of sixth grade students who will drop out in the transition to lower secondary school, performing as well as models used in the United States and providing more accurate results than other commonly used targeting approaches.

Keywords: Educational Institutions & Facilities, Educational Policy and Planning, Economics of Education, Educational Policy and Planning - Ministry of Education, Educational Policy and Planning - Institutional Development

Suggested Citation

Adelman, Melissa A. and Haimovich, Francisco and Ham, Andres and Vazquez, Emmanuel Jose, Predicting School Dropout with Administrative Data: New Evidence from Guatemala and Honduras (July 10, 2017). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8142. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3006216

Melissa A. Adelman (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Francisco Haimovich

Universidad Nacional de La Plata - Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS) ( email )

Calle 6 e/47 y 48
La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires 1900
Argentina

Andres Ham

Independent

No Address Available

Emmanuel Jose Vazquez

Universidad Nacional de La Plata - Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS) ( email )

Calle 6 e/47 y 48
La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires 1900
Argentina

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