Changes in U.S. Wages 1976-2000: Ongoing Skill Bias or Major Technological Change?

41 Pages Posted: 14 Feb 2002 Last revised: 7 Jul 2022

See all articles by Paul Beaudry

Paul Beaudry

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Vancouver School of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

David A. Green

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Department of Economics

Date Written: February 2002

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of changes in the US wage structure over the period 1976-2000, with the objective of evaluating whether these changes are best described as the result of ongoing skill-biased technological change, or alternatively, as the outcome of an adjustment process associated with a major discrete change in technological opportunities. The main empirical observation we uncover is that change in both the level of wages and the returns to skill over this period appear to be primarily driven by changes in the ratio of human capital (as measured by effective units of skilled workers) to physical capital. Although at first pass this pattern may appear difficult to interpret, we show that it conforms extremely well to a simple model of technological adoption following a major change in technological opportunities. In contrast, we do not find much empirical support for the view that ongoing (factor-augmenting) skill-biased technological progress has been an important driving force over this period, nor do we find support for the view that physical capital accumulation has contributed to the increased differential between more and less educated workers (in fact, we find the opposite).

Suggested Citation

Beaudry, Paul and Green, David Alan, Changes in U.S. Wages 1976-2000: Ongoing Skill Bias or Major Technological Change? (February 2002). NBER Working Paper No. w8787, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=300749

Paul Beaudry (Contact Author)

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Vancouver School of Economics ( email )

997-1873 East Mall
Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z1
Canada

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

David Alan Green

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Department of Economics ( email )

997-1873 East Mall
Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1
Canada
604-822-8216 (Phone)
604-822-5915 (Fax)