인구고령화가 주택시장에 미치는 영향 (Impact of Population Aging on the Housing Market)

46 Pages Posted: 28 Jul 2017

See all articles by Kanghyun Oh

Kanghyun Oh

The Bank of Korea

Sol Kim

The Bank of Korea

Jaejun Yoon

The Bank of Korea

Sangki Ahn

The Bank of Korea

Donghwee Kwon

The Bank of Korea

Date Written: July 27, 2017

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 저출산·기대수명 연장 등에 따른 인구고령화는 중장기적으로 ① 자가·전세·월세 등의 점유형태와 주거면적 ② 단독·연립·아파트 등 주택유형 ③ 거주·투자 등 보유목적 측면에서 주택시장에 커다란 구조 변화를 가져올 것으로 예상된다. 특히 우리나라는 인구고령화 진행속도가 주요국보다 빠른 데다 2020년부터 베이비붐 세대가 65세 이상 고령층에 대거 진입하면서 주택시장에 미치는 영향이 압축적으로 나타날 가능성이 크다. 먼저 주택 점유형태 및 주거면적 측면에서 보면, 일부 고령가구는 노후 생계비 마련이 충분하지 않은 상황에서 주택을 처분하여 소득을 보전할 필요가 있으며, 이는 청년가구의 자가수요 감소 등과 함께 주택수요 증가세를 둔화시키는 요인으로 작용할 것으로 보인다. 또한 고령 1∼2인 가구가 늘어나고 은퇴 후 주택자산 유동화의 필요성이 커지면서 이들의 선호에 부합하는 중소형 주택 및 아파트에 대한 수요가 늘어날 것으로 보인다. 한편 다주택 보유자를 중심으로 월세 임대를 통해 안정적 현금흐름을 추구할 유인이 높아진 가운데 청년가구의 꾸준한 임차수요 등으로 월세 중심의 임대차시장 변화 추세도 이어질 가능성이 크다. 이와 같은 인구고령화에 따른 주택시장 구조 변화가 주택시장의 수급불균형을 유발하지 않도록 중장기 주택수급 안정화 방안을 마련하는 한편 고령가구에 대한 수요 맞춤형 주택공급, 청년층·저소득층·빈곤노년층 등 주거약자를 위한 공공임대주택 확충, 빈집 활용 등 재고주택 관리 대책 등을 추진할 필요가 있다. 특히 베이비붐 세대를 중심으로 고령가구의 주택처분 등이 단기에 집중될 경우 주택가격 하락 압력으로 작용할 수 있다는 점에서, 주택연금 활성화, 은퇴가구의 보유주택 임대 전환 지원 등 고령층의 주택매도 압력을 완화시킬 수 있는 대책도 지속적으로 추진되어야 하겠다.

English Abstract: Population aging due to low fertility and prolonged life expectancy is expected to bring a large structural change in the housing market in the mid to long-term in terms of:

i) occupation type and residential areas,

ii) housing type and,

iii) purpose of possession, and others.

In particular, the rate of population aging in Korea is faster than that in other major countries, and it is highly likely that the effects of populations aging on the housing market will appear to be compressive as baby boomers become 65 or above after 2020.

First of all, in the case of housing occupation type and residential area, it is necessary for some elderly households to preserve their income by disposing houses under insufficient provision of future living expenses. This phenomenon is expected to slow down the growth of housing demand, on top of young households decreasing demand for housing and shrinking residential areas. In addition, as the number of elderly household with 1~2 people increases and the need for liquidation of housing assets after retirement grows, demand for small- to mid-sized houses and apartments is likely to increase. Meanwhile, It is highly likely that the leasing market will continue to change due to an increase in incentives to pursue stable cash flows through monthly rental for multi-house owners and young households’ steady demand for leases.

In order to prevent structural changes in house market, due to population aging, from causing supply-demand imbalance of the housing market, it is necessary to stabilize the supply and demand of mid- and long-term housing. At the same time, supplying customized housing for the aged, expanding public rental housing for people with housing disadvantages such as young, low income, and impoverished elderly and promoting inventory management measures such as utilization of vacant houses should be implemented. Especially, if the housing disposal of baby boomers is concentrated in the short term, it can act as a pressure to lower house price. To this end, measures should be taken to mitigate the pressure on the sale of housing for the elderly, such as the activation of housing pensions and the support for retirement home lease conversion.

Note: Downloadable document is available in Korean.

Keywords: population aging, housing market, APC model

JEL Classification: J10, R21, R30, C53

Suggested Citation

Oh, Kanghyun and Kim, Sol and Yoon, Jaejun and Ahn, Sangki and Kwon, Donghwee, 인구고령화가 주택시장에 미치는 영향 (Impact of Population Aging on the Housing Market) (July 27, 2017). Bank of Korea 2017-25. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3009106 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3009106

Kanghyun Oh (Contact Author)

The Bank of Korea ( email )

39, Namdaemun-ro, Jung-gu
Seoul, 04531
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Sol Kim

The Bank of Korea ( email )

39, Namdaemun-ro, Jung-gu
Seoul, 04531
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Jaejun Yoon

The Bank of Korea ( email )

39, Namdaemun-ro, Jung-gu
Seoul, 04531
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Sangki Ahn

The Bank of Korea ( email )

39, Namdaemun-ro, Jung-gu
Seoul, 04531
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Donghwee Kwon

The Bank of Korea ( email )

39, Namdaemun-ro, Jung-gu
Seoul, 04531
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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