Mainstream Protest Voting: Did Voters Choose Brexit and Corbyn because they expected them to lose?

23 Pages Posted: 4 Aug 2017 Last revised: 10 Jun 2018

See all articles by Jonathan Mellon

Jonathan Mellon

University of Manchester

Christopher Prosser

University of Manchester

Date Written: August 2, 2017

Abstract

Recent UK elections have seen apparently unexpected levels of support for the Leave side in the EU referendum and the Labour party under Jeremy Corbyn. Some commentators have argued that these surprising results were not driven by actual support for these outcomes, but by voters who did not expect their choice to win. It is claimed that voters chose these options strategically either to influence the winner's policies or to minimise the scale of the victory of their opposing side, while still preferring the side they voted against to actually win. We refer to this proposed mechanism as mainstream protest voting. We use data from the British Election Study Internet Panel to examine the evidence for such behaviour. In both the EU referendum and 2017 General Election we find no evidence that mainstream protest voting was an important factor in voters' support for either Leave or Corbyn.

Keywords: expressive voting, British politics, expectations, EU referendum, Brexit, British Election Study

Suggested Citation

Mellon, Jonathan and Prosser, Christopher, Mainstream Protest Voting: Did Voters Choose Brexit and Corbyn because they expected them to lose? (August 2, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3012739 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3012739

Jonathan Mellon (Contact Author)

University of Manchester ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom

Christopher Prosser

University of Manchester ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom

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