The Long‐Term Effects of Early Track Choice

33 Pages Posted: 11 Aug 2017

See all articles by Christian Dustmann

Christian Dustmann

University College London; Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Patrick A. Puhani

Leibniz Universität Hannover; University of St. Gallen - Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economic Research; IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Université Paris II - Panthéon-Assas

Uta Schönberg

University of Rochester; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

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Date Written: August 2017

Abstract

We investigate the effects of attending a more advanced track in middle school on long‐term education and labour market outcomes for Germany, a country with a rigorous early‐age tracking system, where the risk of misallocating students is particularly high. Our research design exploits quasi‐random shifts between tracks induced by date of birth, and speaks to the long‐term effects of early track attendance for a group of marginal students most at risk of misallocation. Remarkably, we find no evidence that attending a more advanced track leads to more favourable long‐term outcomes. We attribute this result to the possibility of later track‐reversal.

Suggested Citation

Dustmann, Christian and Puhani, Patrick A. and Schönberg, Uta, The Long‐Term Effects of Early Track Choice (August 2017). The Economic Journal, Vol. 127, Issue 603, pp. 1348-1380, 2017, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3016868 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12419

Christian Dustmann (Contact Author)

University College London ( email )

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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Patrick A. Puhani

Leibniz Universität Hannover ( email )

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Germany

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IZA Institute of Labor Economics

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Université Paris II - Panthéon-Assas

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France

Uta Schönberg

University of Rochester ( email )

Rochester, NY 14627
United States

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

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Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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