Is the NFL Betting Market Still Inefficient?

19 Pages Posted: 24 Aug 2017 Last revised: 19 Feb 2018

See all articles by Corey A. Shank

Corey A. Shank

Dalton State College - Division of Business Administration

Date Written: November 28, 2017

Abstract

In this paper, I examine market efficiency in the National Football League betting market. In the point spread market, sportsbooks appear to underestimate the abilities of the home team as they are more likely to cover the spread when they are substantial underdogs and when the home team has not covered the spread in its previous games. In the totals market, games are more likely to cover the over when the closing line is small or large showing a quadratic relationship to game outcomes and when the home team has covered the over in its previous games. Overall, the results show that both the point spread and totals market are statistically inefficient.

Keywords: Gambling, Market Efficiency, NFL, Sports Betting

JEL Classification: G14, L83

Suggested Citation

Shank, Corey, Is the NFL Betting Market Still Inefficient? (November 28, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3022567 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3022567

Corey Shank (Contact Author)

Dalton State College - Division of Business Administration ( email )

Dalton, GA 30720
United States

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