Global Population Growth, Technology, and Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective

34 Pages Posted: 28 Aug 2017

See all articles by Bruno Lanz

Bruno Lanz

ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC)

Simon Dietz

London School of Economics - Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and Department of Geography and Environment

Timothy M. Swanson

University College London - Department of Economics and Faculty of Law

Date Written: August 2017

Abstract

We structurally estimate a two‐sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long‐run evolution of global population, technological progress, and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth, and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onward show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100, global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.

Suggested Citation

Lanz, Bruno and Dietz, Simon and Swanson, Timothy M., Global Population Growth, Technology, and Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective (August 2017). International Economic Review, Vol. 58, Issue 3, pp. 973-1006, 2017, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3026831 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/iere.12242

Bruno Lanz (Contact Author)

ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC) ( email )

ETH-Zentrum
Zurich, CH-8092
United States

Simon Dietz

London School of Economics - Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and Department of Geography and Environment ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://personal.lse.ac.uk/dietzs

Timothy M. Swanson

University College London - Department of Economics and Faculty of Law ( email )

Gower Street
London WC1E 6BT, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom
+44 (020) 7-679-58 (Phone)
+44 (020) 7-6016-2772 (Fax)

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