J M Keynes's Non (Sub) Additive, Interval Valued Approach to Probability is the Foundation for Both Keynes's Weight of the Evidence Analysis in the A Treatise on Probability and His Uncertainty Definition in the General Theory

25 Pages Posted: 29 Aug 2017

See all articles by Michael Emmett Brady

Michael Emmett Brady

California State University, Dominguez Hills

Date Written: August 26, 2017

Abstract

It is a straight forward exercise to demonstrate that the concept of the weight of the evidence in the A Treatise on Probability and the concept of uncertainty in the General Theory both follow directly from Keynes’s analysis and application of Boole’s development of the concept of upper and lower probabilities in The Laws of Thought in 1854 in Part II of the A Treatise on Probability.

This demonstration shows that both GLS Shackle’s definition of uncertainty and Paul Davidson’s definition of uncertainty, not only have nothing to do with the work of J M Keynes, but are directly in conflict with it. Neither the Shackle or the Davidson approaches can deal with interval valued probability. Shackle and Davidson can only deal with numerical probabilities based on the limiting frequency interpretation of probability.

Keywords: weight, interval vaued probability, upper and lower probabilities, nonnumerical probabilites, liquidity preference

JEL Classification: B10, B12, B14, B16, B20, B22

Suggested Citation

Brady, Michael Emmett, J M Keynes's Non (Sub) Additive, Interval Valued Approach to Probability is the Foundation for Both Keynes's Weight of the Evidence Analysis in the A Treatise on Probability and His Uncertainty Definition in the General Theory (August 26, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3026911 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3026911

Michael Emmett Brady (Contact Author)

California State University, Dominguez Hills ( email )

1000 E. Victoria Street, Carson, CA
Carson, CA 90747
United States

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