What Can the Duration of Discovered Cartels Tell Us About the Duration of All Cartels?

29 Pages Posted: 6 Sep 2017

See all articles by Joseph E. Harrington Jr

Joseph E. Harrington Jr

University of Pennsylvania

Yanhao 'Max' Wei

University of Southern California - Marshall School of Business

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 2017

Abstract

Estimates of average cartel duration and the annual probability of cartel death are based on data for discovered cartels. It is recognised that these estimates could be biased because the population of discovered cartels may not be a representative sample of the latent population of cartels. This article constructs a birth‐death‐discovery process to investigate the source and direction of possible biases. Bayesian inference is used to provide bounds on the extent of the bias and deliver an improved set of beliefs on the probability of cartel death.

Suggested Citation

Harrington Jr, Joseph E. and Wei, Yanhao, What Can the Duration of Discovered Cartels Tell Us About the Duration of All Cartels? (September 2017). The Economic Journal, Vol. 127, Issue 604, pp. 1977-2005, 2017, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3031007 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12359

Joseph E. Harrington Jr (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania ( email )

Philadelphia, PA 19102
Philadelphia, PA 19104

Yanhao Wei

University of Southern California - Marshall School of Business ( email )

701 Exposition Blvd
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

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