India's Energy and Emissions Future: A Synthesis of Recent Scenarios

Working Paper, Initiative on Climate, Energy and Environment, (Centre for Policy Research, September 2017)

23 Pages Posted: 11 Sep 2017

See all articles by Navroz K. Dubash

Navroz K. Dubash

Center for Policy Research (India)

Radhika Khosla

University of Oxford

Narasimha D. Rao

Yale School of the Environment; IIASA

Ankit Bhardwaj

Centre for Policy Research

Date Written: September 8, 2017

Abstract

Global perceptions of India’s climate and energy future have changed rapidly. From a concern that Indian energy needs could jeopardise climate futures, India is increasingly seen as a forerunner of a low carbon future. This Perspective synthesizes scenario studies to more accurately delineate India’s future energy and carbon trajectory and explores the conditions that will shape alternative futures. We conclude that, based on current policies, a doubling of India’s CO2 emissions by 2030 from 2012 levels is a likely upper bound, and that this trajectory is consistent with meeting India’s Paris emissions intensity pledge. Policy scenarios suggest scope for reduced emissions growth, but this scope is more limited in national development-based scenarios than pure decarbonisation scenarios. Conditions that will drive future emissions include the energy-intensive nature of India’s future job creation, the ability to lock-in energy efficient measures, and the sustainability of recent renewable energy price trends.

Keywords: India, Energy, Scenarios, Co-benefits, Climate Change, Low-carbon

Suggested Citation

Dubash, Navroz K. and Khosla, Radhika and Rao, Narasimha D. and Bhardwaj, Ankit, India's Energy and Emissions Future: A Synthesis of Recent Scenarios (September 8, 2017). Working Paper, Initiative on Climate, Energy and Environment, (Centre for Policy Research, September 2017), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3034092 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3034092

Navroz K. Dubash (Contact Author)

Center for Policy Research (India) ( email )

Dharma Marg
Chanakyapuri
New Delhi, 110 021
India
+91-11-2611-5273 (Phone)
+91-11-2687-2746 (Fax)

Radhika Khosla

University of Oxford ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

Narasimha D. Rao

Yale School of the Environment ( email )

New Haven, CT 06520
United States

HOME PAGE: http://environment.yale.edu/profile/rao

IIASA ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Ankit Bhardwaj

Centre for Policy Research ( email )

Dharma Marg
Chanakyapuri
New Delhi, 110022
India

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