Welfare Chauvinism? Refugee Flows and Electoral Support for Populist-Right Parties in Industrial Democracies

45 Pages Posted: 11 Sep 2017  

Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati

University College Dublin (UCD) - Department of Politics

Grace Kelly

University College Dublin (UCD) - Department of Politics

Date Written: September 8, 2017

Abstract

In this paper we examine whether refugee flows are associated with an increase in electoral support for populist-right parties. The empirical evidence on this so far remains mixed. We argue that refugee inflows alone are an inaccurate predictor of the success of populist-right parties. Rather, refugee inflows can lead to a rise in electoral support for populist-right parties where traditional welfare states are expansive—the so called ‘welfare chauvinism’ argument, wherein natives already dependent on high levels of social welfare are likely to see refugees as interlopers who free-ride on welfare and thereby threaten the welfare of locals. Using panel data on 27 OECD countries during 1990–2014 period (25 years), we find no evidence to suggest that refugee inflows per se increase electoral support for populist-right parties. However, a positive effect of refugee inflows on electoral support for populist-right parties is conditional upon a higher degree of social welfare and unemployment benefit spending, which supports the propositions of ‘welfare chauvinism.’ Moreover, support for populist-right parties increase when the degree of labor market regulations and welfare spending is high. Our results are robust to alternative data, sample and estimation techniques.

Keywords: refugee flows, welfare state, and populist-right

JEL Classification: H24, H41, F22

Suggested Citation

Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya and Kelly, Grace, Welfare Chauvinism? Refugee Flows and Electoral Support for Populist-Right Parties in Industrial Democracies (September 8, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3034518 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3034518

Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati (Contact Author)

University College Dublin (UCD) - Department of Politics ( email )

Belfield
Dublin 4
Ireland

Grace Kelly

University College Dublin (UCD) - Department of Politics ( email )

Belfield
Dublin 4
Ireland

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