Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11°C Warming?

24 Pages Posted: 13 Sep 2017

See all articles by Alice Favero

Alice Favero

Georgia Institute of Technology

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies; Yale University

Brent Sohngen

Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics

Date Written: September 11, 2017

Abstract

It is well known that the forestry sector is sensitive to climate change but most studies have examined impacts only through 2100 and warming of less than 4°C. This is the first timber analysis to consider possible climate change impacts out to 2250 and warming up to 11°C above 1900 levels. The results suggest that large productivity gains through 2190 lead to a continued expansion of the global timber supply. However, as carbon fertilization effects diminish and continued warming causes forestland to continue to shrink, warming above 8°C is predicted to become harmful to the forest sector.

Keywords: Climate change, RCP 8.5, Forestry, Dynamic optimization, Timber market

JEL Classification: Q5, Q23

Suggested Citation

Favero, Alice and Mendelsohn, Robert O. and Sohngen, Brent L., Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11°C Warming? (September 11, 2017). FEEM Working Paper No. 40.2017. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3035217 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3035217

Alice Favero (Contact Author)

Georgia Institute of Technology ( email )

Atlanta, GA 30332
United States

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies ( email )

195 Prospect Street
New Haven, CT 06511
United States

Yale University ( email )

New Haven, CT 06520
United States
2034325128 (Phone)

Brent L. Sohngen

Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics ( email )

2120 Fyffe Rd
Ag Admin
Columbus, OH 43210-1067
United States

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