Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11°C Warming?
24 Pages Posted: 13 Sep 2017
Date Written: September 11, 2017
It is well known that the forestry sector is sensitive to climate change but most studies have examined impacts only through 2100 and warming of less than 4°C. This is the first timber analysis to consider possible climate change impacts out to 2250 and warming up to 11°C above 1900 levels. The results suggest that large productivity gains through 2190 lead to a continued expansion of the global timber supply. However, as carbon fertilization effects diminish and continued warming causes forestland to continue to shrink, warming above 8°C is predicted to become harmful to the forest sector.
Keywords: Climate change, RCP 8.5, Forestry, Dynamic optimization, Timber market
JEL Classification: Q5, Q23
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation